Oliver's insights: Shares down on the oil shock - 5 key charts for investors to keep in mind

The key points are:

  • The War with Iran has led to a surge in oil prices & worries of stagflation which has pushed share markets sharply lower.

  • Predicting how this will all unfold is hard. The key is to stay focussed on the basic principles of successful investing.

  • These five charts focus on principles of investing critical in times like now: the power of compound interest; don’t get blown off by the cycle; the roller coaster of investor emotion; the wall of worry; and market timing is hard.

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Moneysmart tips: A monthly e-newsletter with free tools, tips and guidance

It's Global Money Week!

Global Money Week is focused on helping young people build financial awareness, and Moneysmart’s Gen Z study highlights the importance of verifying the reliability of information sources.

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What to know about share market volatility

When share markets rise and fall, it can make us feel uneasy about our money. Here’s what to understand about market volatility, why it happens, and what to keep in mind.

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How to spot lead generation

Do you know what lead generation is? Stay informed about the signs so you can better protect your super and savings.

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Super boost

Explore some ways to keep your super on track, no matter your age or stage of life.

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Cost of retirement goes up

Industry estimates show that the super balances needed by homeowners at age 67 to fund a comfortable retirement in Australia have reached a record high.

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AI and money decisions

Moneysmart’s Gen Z study found that around one in five Gen Zs are using AI to make decisions about their financial future, and most trust the information. If that sounds like you, read this first.

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How a mortgage offset account works

Mortgage offset accounts can be useful—but do they really help your savings? Learn how they operate in practice.

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Oliver's Insights: The RBA hikes again on the back of the boost to inflation from the Iran War

The key points are:

  • The RBA hiked its cash rate for the second time this year by another 0.25% to 4.1% in response to inflation running above target and the War with Iran likely to boost it further. 

  • A further rate hike is highly possible, but the longer the conflict persists the greater the risk that the inflation shock  will turn into an output shock.  

  • As such our base case is for the RBA to leave rates on hold at its May meeting. 

  • The best thing the Government can do to help alleviate underlying inflation pressures is to lower the level of public spending and introduce reforms to help boost productivity. 

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Oliver’s Insights: The impact of the US/Iran war on economies and markets – Q and A

The key points are:

  • Uncertainty around the duration of the US/Israel war with Iran has intensified with oil prices spiking to $US119/barrel only to then plunge as President Trump hinted that the war may be close to over. This is in turn driving big gyrations in investment markets.  

  • While a limited war remains more likely than a long war, it could still push oil prices higher & shares lower in the near term. Trump may be getting close to an off ramp though. 

  • For the RBA, there is a strong case to wait till May on rates as the boost to inflation could prove temporary.

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Advice Evolution & Fintegrity Newsletter

Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.

Warning of ‘supercharged harm’ from unregulated AI

Australia must urgently increase investment in AI and research and development to prevent a generation of young people being “sacrificed for the profits of big tech.”

Speaking at the National Press Club in Canberra, UNSW Professor Toby Walsh will warn that Australia is failing to properly regulate AI and risks repeating past mistakes made with social media safeguards.

Should you move your super to cash when markets fall? Think again.

Whenever markets fall, the same question comes up: Should I move my super to cash before things get worse?

It’s a natural reaction — watching your balance drop is uncomfortable. But super is built for long-term growth, not short-term comfort. As the saying goes, it’s time in the market, not timing the market, that builds wealth.

Key ways to invest through an SMSF and how to create a solid investment strategy

A Self-Managed Super Fund (SMSF) gives individuals greater control over their retirement savings and investment choices.

To maximise long-term returns and financial security, it’s important to understand the available options and adopt a clear strategy.

Trademarking your business name: When is the right time?

For many small business owners, choosing a name is an exciting early milestone. But trademarking it is often delayed due to cost, complexity or the belief it can wait. In reality, getting the timing right can prevent costly disputes and brand confusion later.

So when should you trademark your business name — and is it worth it?

What is key person insurance — and why small business owners should care

Running a small business means wearing many hats. Often, one or two key people hold the knowledge, relationships or leadership that keep it thriving. If something unexpected happened to them, the financial impact could be severe.

That’s where key person insurance comes in.

How a new generation of investors are teaching their parents about investing

In the 1950s, investing was expensive and time-consuming. Those who could afford it had to go through stockbrokers, who dominated the market and charged high, fixed commissions.

Investment options were limited, overseas investing was rare, and real-time price updates didn’t exist. Investors had to contact their broker just to get current stock prices.

Conflict in Iran: Macro and market implications

As events continue to unfold in Iran, we recognise the uncertainty facing global investors. The team from Fidelity International is closely monitoring developments across asset classes and sharing updated insights.

While the situation remains fluid, we do not see this as a regime shift akin to Venezuela, given Iran’s highly institutionalised governance. Using our node-based framework, we assess potential scenarios and likely paths ahead.

In this note:

  • Salman Ahmed, Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation, outlines key conflict scenarios.

  • Niamh Brodie Machura, Chief Investment Officer, Equities, highlights risks and equity positioning.

  • Marion Le Morhedec, Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income, reviews fixed income implications.

  • Matthew Quaife, Global Head of Multi Asset, emphasizes resilient, diversified portfolios.

View the full Fidelity International note (PDF)

Oliver's Insights: Gulf War 3 – the threat to economies and markets from the US/Iran war

The key points are:

  • The start of a war between the US and Israel and Iran poses the risk of a significant disruption to global economic growth given the likelihood of significant disruption to the supply of oil, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.

  • This in turn could contribute to a correction in share prices.

  • A $US40 a barrel spike in oil prices could add 40 cents a litre to petrol prices with a threat to growth & inflation. As a “tax on spending” the RBA should look through it.

  • For investors: share market falls are normal, timing markets is hard and the key is to stick to a long-term strategy.

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Oliver's Insights: The outlook for Australian shares – is the long underperformance versus global shares over?

The key points are:

  • Over the long-term Australian shares have been a relatively strong performer, but it does go through relatively long periods of out and underperformance versus global shares.

  • We see more upside in Australian shares supported by the return of profit growth. And its underperformance over the last 16 years is getting long in the tooth.

  • Nine key charts worth watching are: business conditions PMIs; US tariffs; inflation; inflation expectations; profit growth; share market valuations; the rotation trade from tech to non-tech shares; the $US; and geopolitical risk. At present they are sending mixed signals.

Full article here

Oliver's Insights: Nine key charts for investors to keep an eye on

The key points are:

  • This year has started off rather messy with geopolitical threats and worries around AI disruption and valuations.

  • We are mildly upbeat on shares for the year but see a 15% or so correction as likely along the way.

  • Nine key charts worth watching are: business conditions PMIs; US tariffs; inflation; inflation expectations; profit growth; share market valuations; the rotation trade from tech to non-tech shares; the $US; and geopolitical risk. At present they are sending mixed signals.

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Oliver's Insights: Inflation, rate hikes and public spending – Q&A

The key points are:

  • Keeping inflation low and around the 2-3% target is important in terms of maximising living standards in Australia.

  • We are optimistic that much of the recent rise in inflation will prove temporary.

  • But some may reflect the economy hitting capacity constraints as a pickup in household and business spending combines with historically high levels of public spending.

  • The best things governments can do to help lower inflation is reduce the level of spending in the near term and help boost the supply side of the economy in the long term.

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Moneysmart tips: A monthly e-newsletter with free tools, tips and guidance.

Moneysmart tips: Rate rises, share market volatility and keeping super safe

With a cash rate increase and share market volatility, February has started fast out of the gates. So, below we have tips on managing your mortgage, your super, and your credit profile.
We also have guidance on keeping your super safe.

Switching home loans

The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points this month, which could add almost $100 per month to the repayments on a $600,000 loan. Now could be a great time to compare your home loan options.

Calculate your savings

Check your score

Did you know you can access your credit score and credit report for free? A good credit score gives you negotiating power when it comes to getting a loan. So, it's worth checking how you're rated. 

Find out how

Are you underinsured?

We’re still in natural disaster season and when something happens the last thing you want to find out is that you’re underinsured. Find out how it happens and what it means.

Protect yourself

Keep your super safe

Share market volatility can make you feel worried about your savings. Don’t turn that worry into a rushed decision.

Learn more

"I’m happy this was the right decision for me"

How support and superannuation options helped Lillian balance health and financial security. 

Case study

Oliver's Insights: The RBA starts the year off with a rate hike

The key points are:

  • The RBA hiked its cash rate by 0.25% to 3.85% as widely expected in response to inflation running above target.

  • Its commentary was cautious and hawkish with inflation now expected to stay above target for longer even with assumptions for two more rate hikes and the stronger $A.

  • We thought it was a close call and leaned to a hold. But having hiked we expect the RBA to hold for the remainder of the year as we see underlying inflation as having peaked in the September quarter and falling back to target.

  • Valid concerns about capacity constraints though are likely to keep the risk of a further rate hike high.

  • The best thing government can do to help alleviate this is to lower the level of public spending.

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RBA lifts cash rate

At its first meeting of 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lifted the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points, taking it to 3.85%. This marks the RBA’s first cash rate increase since November 2023 and reflects ongoing concerns about inflation.

Read today’s official statement on the RBA’s website.

Australia’s inflation rate continues to trend upward, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.8% in the 12 months to December, up from 3.4% in November.

 Underlying inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, was 3.3% over the same period, slightly higher than the 3.2% recorded in November.

 The RBA’s goal is for inflation to sit “sustainably” within its target range of 2 to 3%, preferably around the midpoint. With price pressures proving stubborn, today’s increase was widely expected by the major banks.

According to Roy Morgan data, today’s cash rate hike could place additional pressure on household budgets, with around 1.3 million households potentially experiencing mortgage stress. A 0.25 per cent increase could add roughly $115 to the monthly repayment on an average $694,000 mortgage.

 If you are feeling the impact, you are not alone. We can confirm whether your lender is passing on the increase, explain what it means for your repayments and help you assess whether a more competitive loan may be available.

 And if buying property is part of your 2026 plans, we are here to help you explore your finance options and make sure you are prepared in a changing rate environment.

 Many economists believe further rate rises remain a possibility in the months ahead.

 The next cash rate decision will be announced on 17 March.

Advice Evolution & Fintegrity Newsletter

Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.

7 Smart tax tips for busy professionals (and why a trusted accountant is your secret weapon)

For busy professionals, tax rarely feels urgent until the deadline hits. Then comes the scramble through emails, receipts, and bank statements, hoping nothing’s been missed. With work, family, and life competing for attention, tax planning becomes reactive instead of strategic—often costing people money.

Building smarter: How to create an environmentally friendly home

Sustainability is no longer niche in Australian property—it’s becoming standard. With rising energy costs, growing climate awareness, and stronger buyer demand, environmentally smart homes make sense both financially and lifestyle-wise. Whether you’re building new or renovating, smart design choices can cut energy use, lower costs, and improve comfort. This guide outlines the top 10 ways to build sustainably, along with five renovations that deliver meaningful energy savings.

Why Reviewing Your Life Insurance Matters More Than You Think

Life insurance is often set up during a big life moment, then forgotten. But life changes, and your cover should too. Regular reviews ensure your policy still protects what matters without leaving you underinsured, overpaying, or stuck with cover that no longer fits.

Advice Evolution and Fintegrity Newsletter

Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.

- Ethical investing: What makes it an attractive investment strategy

  • Types of Ethical Investments

  • Pros and Cons of Ethical Investing

- How treasurer could make capital gains taxes ‘fairer’

- Key differences between self- managed super funds (SMSF) and conventional super

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Oliver's Insights: 2026 investment outlook: Expect a rough but, ultimately, OK ride

The key points are:

  • 2025 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth and profits and global central banks cutting rates. Balanced super funds returned around 9%. Volatility rose though mainly on the back of worries about Trump’s tariffs.

  • 2026 is likely to see good returns but after the strong gains of the last three years, its likely to be more constrained. And another 15% plus correction is likely along the way again.

  • We expect the RBA to leave rates on hold, the ASX to return around 8% and balanced growth super funds to return around 7%. Australian home price gains are likely to slow to around 5-7%.

  • The key things to watch are: interest rates; the AI boom; US midterms; China; geopolitics; and the Australian consumer. 

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Moneysmart tips: A monthly e-newsletter with free tools, tips and guidance.

Moneysmart tips: A money 'to do' list to kick off 2026

No matter what stage of life you’re at, the start of a new year is a great time to get some money admin stuff done.
So, here's 5 key tasks to kick off your new year. Plus, some more value-adding actions below.

1. Check your credit card’s working for you
2. Give your health insurance a health check
3. Review your mortgage
4. Find your super
5. Do a written budget

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$2.6 billion in unclaimed money

When a financial institution loses touch with you, money that’s sitting in a bank account, life policy or investment can become unclaimed and get transferred to ASIC. There’s currently $2.6 billion being held - use our free search tool to check if some of that could be yours.

Unclaimed money search

$18 billion in lost super

In fact, the ATO advises that the total lost and ATO-held super as of 30 June 2025 was almost $19 billion for just under 7.3 million accounts. Learn more about lost super and how you can find it.

Find lost super

$271 million in unpaid Medicare benefits

According to Services Australia there’s currently over $271 million in unpaid Medicare benefits owed to almost 1 million people. They can’t pay you if they don’t have your current bank details – it’s a good idea to check yours.

How to update

Time to compare your card

Australians owe around $33 billion on credit cards with $18 billion of that money accruing interest. At an average credit card interest rate of 18%, it's an expensive habit.
This month, check your credit card to make sure you’ve chosen one that works for you.

Choosing a card

No Interest Loans: What to know

A No Interest Loan (NIL) helps you borrow money quickly, with no interest and no fees and charges. They’re offered by more than 170 local community not-for-profit organisations in over 600 locations.
If you’re looking at a No Interest Loan though, avoid the social scams and make sure you use a trusted source.

Find out more

How much will retirement cost you?

Thinking of turning your summer break into something more permanent? The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia and Super Consumers Australia have both run the numbers on how much super you might need to aim for.

The numbers

What will your retirement look like?

Retirement isn’t one-size-fits-all, so the savings you’ll be aiming for will depend on the retirement you want. We have steps to get you started.

Your retirement

Advice Evolution and Fintegrity Newsletter

New Year’s Resolutions: Why we make them—and why some stick while others don’t

Every January, millions of people around the world embrace the symbolic “fresh start” that the new year provides. Fuelled by optimism and the desire for self-improvement, we set resolutions that promise better habits, healthier living, and greater fulfilment. 
But as the enthusiasm of January fades, so too do many of these well-intentioned goals.

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Educating investors: Building the foundations for long-term generational wealth

A new year carries a quiet kind of magic. It invites reflection without judgement and possibility without pressure. No matter what the past year looked like, January represents a reset button — a chance to realign your priorities and move forward with intention. 
Whether you’re aiming to improve your financial position, lifestyle, relationships, or health, the new year offers a powerful opportunity to take small, meaningful steps that add up to lasting change.

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Educating investors: Building the foundations for long-term generational wealth

Investing can feel intimidating for many people, particularly those just starting out. Markets fluctuate, headlines create fear, and misinformation is everywhere. Yet at its core, successful investing is not about chasing hot tips or timing the market—it’s about understanding a few fundamental principles, staying disciplined over the long term, and seeking quality advice to guide decision-making.

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Retirement isn’t an age — it’s a financial position

For decades, retirement has been framed as a milestone tied to age. Sixty-seven has become a default finish line — the point at which work stops and “retirement” begins. But this traditional view no longer reflects reality.
Retirement is not about reaching a specific birthday. It’s about reaching a point where your finances give you choice.

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Your dream trip: The globe lands on… Portugal!

Here’s a fun “spin-the-globe” travel suggestion—written as if fate itself chose your next dream adventure:
Imagine giving the globe a good spin, closing your eyes, and stopping it with your finger. When you open them—boom—Portugal.

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Helping an older loved one feel ready for aged care

Here are five practical, compassionate tips to help an older person move to aged care or a retirement home—and, just as importantly, to help them feel on side and able to speak positively about this next chapter of life.

1. Reframe the Move as Support, Not Loss
2. Involve Them in Every Decision (Even Small Ones)
3. Focus on What Stays the Same
4. Talk About the Next Chapter, Not the Final On
5. Acknowledge Their Feelings—Don’t Dismiss Them

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Financial security: four key strategies to safeguard your financial future

Financial stability doesn’t usually come by chance; it requires preparation and strategy. Most of us depend on a steady paycheck, but few consider what would happen if it disappeared suddenly.

Protecting yourself against financial disaster means planning ahead. Here are four key strategies to safeguard your financial future.
1. Establish an Emergency Fun
2. Diversify Your Income Streams
3. Get Adequate Insurance Coverage
4. Aggressively Reduce Your Debt

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Using your accountant or adviser as a mentor for your new business

Starting a business is an exciting yet challenging endeavor. As an entrepreneur, you need to navigate various systems and processes while minimising errors and maximising success. To gain a competitive edge and make informed decisions, establishing a working relationship with a professional mentor is invaluable. While mentors can come from diverse backgrounds, finding an Accountant or Adviser who also functions as a business mentor can provide unparalleled benefits for your new venture. In this article, we will explore three fundamental ways in which the mentorship of a trusted Adviser can add value to your business.

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Some steps you can take if you are struggling to make mortgage repayments?

Owning a home is a significant milestone. However, the financial responsibility of mortgage repayments can be daunting for some homeowners.
In times of financial difficulty, it’s essential to find ways to manage your mortgage and avoid defaulting on your loan. Here are some practical tips you can implement right away if you’re struggling with mortgage repayments:

1. Assess your financial situation.
2. Reach out to your lender.
3. Consider refinancing your mortgage.
4. Seek financial counselling.
5. Explore government assistance programs.

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What to do if you’re being sued or asked to pay damages

Facing legal action, whether it comes as a lawsuit or a demand to pay damages, can be incredibly stressful. It may trigger feelings of fear, confusion, anger, or embarrassment, especially if the claim feels unfair or comes as a complete shock.
During such times, it’s important to stay calm, act quickly, and make informed decisions. Here’s a guide to help you through this difficult time, including why seeking legal advice is essential and how to emotionally manage the situation.

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Oliver's Insights: 2025 turned out pretty good, but what about 2026? Still at the bliss point?

The key points are:

  • The key themes for 2025 were: tariff turmoil; global resilience helped by AI enthusiasm; sticky inflation; lower rates; and lots of geopolitical noise. For the third year in a row, returns were strong, albeit they slowed. 

  • 2026 is likely to see volatility around US politics, geopolitics & central bank rates at the lows, but returns should be ok. 

  • Expect the RBA cash rate to hold at 3.6%, the ASX 200 to rise to 8900 & balanced super funds to return around 6.8%.  

  • Australian home price gains are likely to slow to 5-7% with poor affordability and a less favourable rate outlook. 

  • Key things to keep an eye on are interest rates, the US midterms, AI enthusiasm, China, & Australian consumers.

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