The key points are:
2025 was another strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than feared growth and profits and global central banks cutting rates. Balanced super funds returned around 9%. Volatility rose though mainly on the back of worries about Trump’s tariffs.
2026 is likely to see good returns but after the strong gains of the last three years, its likely to be more constrained. And another 15% plus correction is likely along the way again.
We expect the RBA to leave rates on hold, the ASX to return around 8% and balanced growth super funds to return around 7%. Australian home price gains are likely to slow to around 5-7%.
The key things to watch are: interest rates; the AI boom; US midterms; China; geopolitics; and the Australian consumer.