Where are we in the global investment cycle and what’s the risk of a 1987 style crash?

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

The following note looks at the global investment cycle and the risk of a 1987 style crash.

The key points are as follows:

• There is still little sign of the sort of excesses that precede major economic downturns and major bear markets suggesting that (although US shares are overdue a decent correction) we are still a fair way from the top in the investment cycle. Key to watch will be rising inflation and aggressive monetary tightening.
• The current environment around share markets is very different to 1987.

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Will Australian house prices crash? Five reasons why its more complicated than you think!

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

The following note looks at five reasons why its more complicated than you think.  

The key points are as follows:

• Talk of a property crash is likely to ramp up again with signs that the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are cooling. But the Australian property market is a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest.
• We continue to expect a 5-10% downswing in Sydney and Melbourne property prices but a crash is unlikely and other capital cities will perform better.
• It remains a time for property investors to exercise caution and focus on laggard or higher-yielding markets.

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Another five great charts on investing

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

The following note looks at another five great charts on investing.

The key points are as follows:

• At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex.
• Here are another five great charts that help illuminate key aspects of investing: the importance of time in the market relative to timing; the case to look at your investments less; the relationship between risk and return; the importance of diversification; and the role of property.

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The Australian economy bounces back - five reasons why some further pick up is likely

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.

The following note takes a look at the rebound in the Australian economy seen in the June quarter and the outlook. 

The key points are as follows:

• Australian growth bounced back in the June quarter helped by consumer spending, investment and trade.
• There is good reason to expect growth to pick up further going forward: the drag from mining investment is fading, non-mining investment is looking better, public investment is strong, trade is adding to growth and profits are rising again. But growth is likely to be constrained around 2.5-3% and underlying inflation is likely to remain low.
• Expect the RBA's cash rate to remain low for a while yet and Australian shares to move higher by year end, but to continue underperforming global shares.

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The Global Financial Crisis 10 years on- Lessons learned and can it happen again?

It seems momentous things happen in years ending in seven. Well, at least in the last 50 years starting with the “summer of love” in 1967 and the introduction of the Chevrolet Camaro. 

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