Oliver's Insights: Investment cycles - what are they & why you need to be aware of them

The key points are:

  • Cyclical fluctuations are a key aspect of investment markets. Most are driven by economic developments but get magnified by swings in investor sentiment.

  • Of particular importance are the long-term cycles which are often driven by waves of innovation and the 3-5 year business cycle. Lately we have been in the benign phase of the business cycle and may have be entering a weaker and constrained phase of the long-term cycle.

  • Periods of poor returns invariably give way to great returns & vice versa. The key is to not get thrown by them.