Key points:
At its December meeting the RBA left rates on hold but retained a tightening bias with still hawkish commentary.
Our concern remains that the RBA has tightened more than necessary with a high risk of recession next year.
The risk of another hike rate - which if it occurs would most likely be at the next meeting in February after December quarter inflation date - remains high at around 40%.
However, our base case is that the RBA has reached the top and we see it cutting rates in second half of 2024.
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