Oliver's Insights - Five constraints on medium term investment returns

Key points

- Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic.

- These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations. A productivity boost from artificial intelligence should provide some partial offset though.

- But taken together this will likely constrain medium term superannuation returns, potentially to around 5.5% pa.


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