Oliver's Insights - 1987 vs now - Rising bond yields (& war in Israel) and the risks for shares

Key points:

  • The rise in bond yields has left shares offering a low risk premium over bonds leaving them at risk of more softness.

  • The conflict in Israel has added to the risk, although the threat should be minimal if Iran is not drawn in avoiding a severe impact on oil supplies.

  • These are parallels with the run up in bond yields prior to the 1987 crash but relative valuations are less threatening.

  • Still falling inflation should take pressure off central banks next year, which should in turn be positive for shares.

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