Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Capital.
The attached note looks at the risk of recession in Australia. The key points are as follows:
Australian growth is likely to remain weak over the next year. Expect further monetary & fiscal stimulus.
However, while the risks have gone up, recession remains unlikely: tax cuts should help growth in the current half year; the threat from falling property prices has receded; infrastructure spending is booming; the low $A is helping growth; the drag from falling mining investment is over; the current account is in surplus; there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus; population growth remains strong; and cyclical spending is low.