Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Capital.

The attached note looks at the risk of recession in Australia. The key points are as follows:

  • Australian growth is likely to remain weak over the next year. Expect further monetary & fiscal stimulus.

  • However, while the risks have gone up, recession remains unlikely: tax cuts should help growth in the current half year; the threat from falling property prices has receded; infrastructure spending is booming; the low $A is helping growth; the drag from falling mining investment is over; the current account is in surplus; there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus; population growth remains strong; and cyclical spending is low.

Read more