Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist.
The following note provides a review of 2018 and what it meant for investors and takes a look at the outlook for 2019. The key points are as follows:
2018 saw reasonable global economic and profit growth and still low interest rates but it has been a rough year for investors with worries about the Fed, trade wars and global growth causing volatility and poor returns.
2019 is unlikely to see the plunge into recession many fear with growth likely to stabilise supporting profit growth, the Fed is likely to undertake a pause in rate hikes and global monetary policy is likely to remain easy. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates.
Against this backdrop, share market volatility will likely remain high but markets should start to improve through the year.
The main things to keep an eye on are: the risks around the Fed, US/China tensions, global growth, Chinese growth and the property price downturn in Australia.