Oliver's insights: Medium term investment returns face five key constraints

The key points are:

  • Five mega trends still point to risks of a more inflation prone/lower growth environment than pre-pandemic.

  • These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations. A productivity boost from artificial intelligence should provide some offset though.

  • But taken together and along with rich share market valuations this will likely constrain medium term superannuation returns, potentially to around 5% pa.

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Advice Evolution & Fintegrity Newsletter

Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.

  • Preventing falls for those in or approaching aged care

  • Is ethical investing a no brainer? 5 Questions to ask your financial adviser

  • How to approach wealth transfer and estate planning: key considerations

Read newsletter

Moneysmart tips: Don't get caught in this super trap | Spring clean your finances

Spring has arrived – and if the idea of spring cleaning your home doesn’t inspire you, consider refreshing your finances instead. Moneysmart has put together some practical savings tips that won’t require giving up your daily coffee.

In this edition, Moneysmart has also explored the advantages and risks of becoming a guarantor, how to assess your retirement readiness, and ways to review your superannuation with confidence.

Time for a budget clean up
Spring is the perfect time to review your budget and ensure you're getting the most value for your money. Start with a few simple savings tips and use a detailed budget planner to help track your spending.

Budget planner

Set a savings goal
Now that the budget’s sorted, why not set a savings goal? The savings goal calculator was used more than 350,000 times last financial year.

Crunch your numbers

What to know about going guarantor on a loan
Spring is home buying season. If you suspect the Bank of Mum/Dad might be called on to go guarantor, here are some key things you need to know.

Know the facts

If you're in the market
The August cash rate reduction has flowed through to home loan rates. If you're in the market to buy, this mortgage calculator can help estimate how much you may be able to borrow, what your repayments might look like, and how to pay off the loan faster.

Work it out now

To do: Fact check your super account
You’ve probably received your annual superannuation statement by now (or it’s on the way). Here are five key things to check when it arrives in your inbox.

Key actions

What happens to your super if you die
Superannuation doesn’t automatically form part of your estate, which means it may be tied up rather than passed on promptly. One way to ensure your super goes to the right people is by making a binding death benefit nomination. However, according to a Super Consumers Australia survey, only one in four Australians have made this nomination.

Below is a step-by-step guide to help take control of the process.

Nominating beneficiaries

Oliver's Insights: Gold at record highs - can it keep going? Implications for investors

The key points are:

  • The gold price has surged to record highs. Key drivers have been central banks increasing their gold reserves, rate cuts, a renewed downtrend in the $US and demand for a hedge against public debt worries and geopolitical threats.

  • While gold is short-term overbought, implying the risk of a short-term correction, more upside is likely over the medium-term as a hedge against a falling $US, public debt and geopolitical worries.

  • There is a case for gold in investment portfolios, but its speculative nature suggests only a modest exposure and over the very long-term shares have done better than gold.

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Oliver's Insights: Australian growth on the mend – implications for profits and interest rates

The key points are:

  • Australia is seeing a gradual economic recovery with growth likely to reach 2.5% next year.

  • This in turn is underpinning a likely upswing in profits.

  • The RBA is expected to cut again in November, February and May to 2.85%, although the risk is on the upside.

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Moneysmart tips: Rate cuts, lost super and unexpected retirement

Home loan savings

Last week’s Reserve Bank decision to cut the cash rate is great news for borrowers. We’re here to help you understand what to watch for when choosing a home loan — check out the guide here.

Try using the mortgage calculator to find out how much you could save by negotiating a lower interest rate.

Dealing with unexpected retirement

Unexpected retirement can disrupt your plans and bring challenges like loss of income, purpose, and daily routine.

To manage this change, focus first on addressing immediate pressures, then plan thoughtfully for the future. Read here for the five key steps to help manage unexpected retirement.

Stop, check and protect your money

Scams Awareness Week runs from 25 to 29 August. With Australians losing $945 million to investment scams in 2024, we’ve put together a refresher on what to verify before investing. Check before you invest

Oliver's Insights - Compound interest and returns are an investor's best friend

The key points are:

  • Compound interest is an investor’s best friend but can be a borrower’s worst nightmare.

  • The higher the return, the earlier and bigger the investment contribution and the longer the period the more it works.

  • To make the most of it, ensure an adequate exposure to growth assets, contribute early & often to your investment portfolio and turn down the noise around investing.

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Oliver's Insights: The RBA cuts for the third time – expect a further gradual easing to 2.85%

The key points are:

  • The RBA cut its cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 3.6%. This is the third rate cut in this easing cycle.

  • The RBA sees inflation running around target but has revised its growth forecasts down again. Its forecasts assume that the cash rate will continue to “follow a gradual easing path”, implying that without further easing, growth and inflation will be lower and unemployment higher than its forecasting.

  • We expect the RBA to cut again in November, February and May taking the cash rate to 2.85%.

  • The ongoing rate cutting cycle should help underpin a modest further pick up in Australian economic growth to around 1.8% yoy by year end, but with the tariff threat posing some downside risk.

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Advice Evolution & Fintegrity Newsletter

Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.

Understanding generational traits and financial advice needs: a guide to supporting every life stage

Each generation has distinct values, experiences, and financial priorities. From those shaped by war and hardship to today’s digital natives, financial needs vary widely. Understanding these differences is vital for individuals planning their futures and advisers providing relevant support. While everyone is unique, generational traits help reveal how people approach money and the advice they seek.

Health and wellbeing across the generations: how each age group can thrive

Health and wellbeing vary across generations, shaped by the times we live in. Each faces unique challenges and opportunities to enhance life quality. By valuing the wisdom of older adults and the energy of youth, we can create healthier, happier lifestyles for all.

Generational attitudes toward property ownership and the importance of expert advice

Property ownership is a major financial milestone, but each generation approaches it with different values and challenges. Whether buying a first home, investing, or downsizing, all generations benefit from expert advice to make informed property decisions.

10 questions to ask your accountant and why a close relationship matters

A skilled accountant is essential for managing personal or business finances, offering clarity, advice, and strategies to improve financial health and compliance. Developing a close relationship with your accountant builds trust and enables personalized, proactive support.

Oliver's Insights: Poor Australian productivity – why all the fuss? And what to do about it?

The key points are:

  • The last decade has seen productivity stagnate in Australia. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages.

  • Policies to boost productivity include: deregulation; more housing supply; a cap on public spending; and tax reform. 

  • Unfortunately, the political pendulum has moved against many of the necessary policies and the lack of a “crisis” like Labor faced in the 1980s may make many reforms difficult.

  • But the good news is that the Government now recognises the problem and is starting to focus on how to boost it.

Read full article

Advice Evolution & Fintegrity Newsletter

Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.

  • Understanding generational traits and financial advice needs: a guide to supporting every life stage

  • Life insurance: why we need to be educated before it’s too late

  • Making the most of your FIFO years: 10 tips for money and life

Read this month’s newsletter here

Moneysmart tips A monthly e-newsletter with free tools, tips and guidance

July is a great time to tick a few ‘to do’ items off your list. Whether you’re lodging your tax return, resetting your budget, or just thinking about your future, we have tips and tools to help you.

Podcast episode: Stopping the scammers

This month the Inside ASIC podcast covers how fraudsters are using artificial intelligence to produce scams that leave even the experts second-guessing.

Listen now

How to lodge your tax return for free

It’s that time of the financial year. We outline how you can prepare and lodge your own tax return online, using the Australian Taxation Office myTax service.  

Learn more

New financial year, new focus

Time for a budget reset? Our online budget planner helps you work out how much you’re earning and where your money is being spent. More than half a million people used it last financial year.

Budget planner

What happens to your super when you retire

Your superannuation may be a big part of your retirement planning – and you can decide what to do with it. Here are some of the common options.

Retirement choices

Protect your super from pushy sales tactics

If someone you don’t know contacts you about your super, it’s a red flag. Learn what to watch out for.  

Protect your super

Oliver's Insights: Seven key charts on the state of the Australian property market

The key points are:

  • The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than many portray it to be.

  • The Australian housing is cycle is turning up again; falling interest rates are the key driver; along with a chronic undersupply of homes of 200,000-300,000 dwellings; this partly reflects a surge in building times; poor affordability is a key constraint though; but it varies significantly between cities; and finally, mortgage arrears remain low.

  • Average prices are expected to rise 5-6% this year boosted by falling rates but constrained by poor affordability.

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Oliver's Insights: China - the tariff threat, structural challenges & implications for Australia

The key points are:

  • Chinese growth is running around 5% and while threats remain high – with the property downturn and tariffs – policy stimulus is likely to be enough to keep growth okay.

  • However, longer term structural challenges – around excess saving, demographics and state control – will likely see growth slow to around 3% pa over the next decade.

  • Australia is now less sensitive to China, but Chinese growth is likely to be enough to keep the iron ore price elevated.

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Oliver's Insights: Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on

The key points are:

  • The first half of this year saw good returns, but they were interrupted by a correction into April thanks to US tariffs.

  • We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but see a high risk of another correction in the next few months.

  • Seven key charts worth watching are: Trump’s tariffs; business conditions PMIs; long term inflation expectations; inflation; profit growth; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the $US. For now, they are mixed.

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Oliver's Insights: 2024-25 saw strong investment returns yet again – but is it sustainable?

The key points are:

  • While recession fears, worries about US tariffs and war with Iran resulted in volatility, 2024-25 saw another financial year of strong returns helped by central bank rate cuts, economic conditions proving better than feared, and as President Trump paused the worst of his tariffs and Iran fears fizzled.

  • Share market volatility is likely to remain high given tariff uncertainties, concerns about US debt, geopolitical threats and likely weaker growth and profits. But with Trump likely to pivot towards more market friendly policies and central banks, including the Fed and RBA, likely to cut rates further, investment returns should be reasonable over 2025-26.

  • However, after three years in a row of 9-10% balanced growth super fund returns, some slowing is likely to a more sustainable pace around 6-7% particularly as share valuations are high.

  • The key for investors including super fund members is to maintain a long-term strategy and turn down the noise.

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Advice Evolution and Fintegrity Monthly News Update

Starting the new financial year with intent: Tips for individuals and families

A new financial year presents the perfect opportunity to take stock, reset, and plan with purpose. Much like a new calendar year inspires resolutions, July 1 offers a financial “fresh start” to review your goals, refine your spending, and make sure your finances are working for you. 

For individuals and families, starting the financial year with intent can lead to greater clarity, control, and confidence in the months ahead.

Tips for small business success, starting the new financial year with intent

The beginning of a new financial year is the perfect opportunity for small business owners to reset, refocus, and plan for sustainable growth. 

It’s a time to take stock of your performance, identify opportunities for improvement, and ensure your financial and operational strategies are aligned with your long-term goals. Starting the year with intent can make all the difference between reacting to challenges and proactively navigating them.

The importance of making a will

As we journey through life, planning for the future becomes increasingly important. 

Every adult has the right to control their affairs, whether managing finances or making healthcare decisions. However, as we age, factors such as illness, disability, or unexpected accidents can diminish our ability to handle these responsibilities. 

Financial security: four steps to protect your future

Financial stability doesn’t usually come by chance; it requires preparation and strategy. Most of us depend on a steady paycheck, but few consider what would happen if it disappeared suddenly. 

Protecting yourself against financial disaster means planning ahead. Here are four key strategies to safeguard your financial future.

Caravanning life in Australia: Top tips for every traveller

Whether you’re downsizing and selling the family home to hit the road full-time, taking a career break for a six to twelve-month lap of Australia, or simply planning a relaxing weekend away, the caravanning lifestyle is booming across the country. With stunning coastal drives, wide open desert plains, and friendly bush retreats, Australia is perfectly suited for exploring on wheels. 

From retirees seeking freedom to young families chasing adventure, the reasons for hitching up a van and heading off are as varied as the landscapes you’ll discover.

Advice Evolution & Fintegrity Newsletter - June

Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.

  • Preparing your tax return – Find out what a tax return is, what information you’ll need to prepare it and when it’s due.

  • What is the right amount of life insurance coverage: the role of a financial adviser

  • End of Financial Year: a time for reflection and new opportunity

Read this month’s newsletter here

Oliver's Insights: Five charts on investing to keep in mind in uncertain times like now

The key points are:

  • The US intervention in the war with Iran has substantially increased the risk of disruption to global oil supplies and a deeper impact on share markets.

  • But predicting how this will all unfold is hard. The key is to stay focussed on the basic principles of successful investing.

  • These five charts focus on principles of investing critical in times like now: the power of compound interest; don’t get blown off by the cycle; the roller coaster of investor emotion; the wall of worry; and market timing is hard.

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